Why Le Pen Will Win
by Jacob McCartney on 2017-05-06
Marine Le Pen, candidate for president of France, will crush Emmanuel Macron tomorrow in the election.
The first round of the election was held on April 23, 2017, yet due to no candidate winning a majority, the two front runners will face of on May 7.
I say that Le Pen will win for a few reasons, all having to do with the some of the same reasons I’ve predicted things like this in the past. This all has to do with what evolutionary anthropologist Peter Turchin says about “ages of discord.” Periods of social integration and disintegration move in cycles lasting roughly 50 years each. It has worked slightly different in France, but the underlying concept is there. Let us take a look at French history.
From the 15th century to 1792 was the Ancien Régime, also known as the Kingdom of France. This lasted for 392 years, until the French Revolution brought about the First Republic. The First Republic lasted from 1792 to 1804, only 12 years. At this point Napoleon rose to power and established the First French Empire until 1848, 44 years. A republican form of government was established in 1848 but was brought to and end 4 years later by a coup orchestrated by Louis-Napoleon Bonaparte, bringing about the Second French Empire from the Second Republic. The Second Empire lasted until 1870, when France surrendered to Prussia. This lasted 18 years and led to the establishment of the Third Republic. This was the longest French Republic so far, lasting for 70 years until its defeat by Nazi Germany in 1940. France’s defeat led to Vichy France, a time where France was occupied by the Germans and for a time the Allies. The Fourth Republic was established in 1946 after the end of the Second World War, but this only lasted for 12 years, due to their attempt to revive the nation to be exactly what it was during the Third Republic. Due to them bringing back the same problems they had before, the Fourth Republic gave rise to the Fifth Republic in 1958, which remains today.
Here is an explicit timeline:
Ancien Régime: 1400-1792 392
First Republic: 1792-1804 12
First Empire: 1804-1848 44
Second Republic: 1848-1852 4
Second Empire: 1852-1870 18
Third Republic: 1870-1940 70
Vichy France: 1940 – 1946 6
Fourth Republic: 1946-1958 12
Fifth Republic: 1958-Present 59
Obviously, French history does not follow a 50 year cycle exactly. There are some exceptions, such as coups, invasions, and occupations, which can be excluded from the data. Even after this, it is not a 50 year cycle. It is, however, close. Not even the Chinese dynastic cycles followed it exactly at 50 years.
The Fifth Republic is currently 59 years old, making it the third longest period in recent French history. It is very likely that France is at the eve of another disintegrative period. Even Turchin once compared the “American polity today … with Ancien Régime France on the eve of the French Revolution,” hence why I predicted Trump’s win.
Le Pen and Macron’s poll numbers and betting sites also closely resemble the poll numbers between Trump and Hillary.
The fears present in American society are not just here. The UK has them, explaining Brexit. France has them, and this is why I predict a win by the right-wing, nationalist candidate Marine Le Pen.
CBS/AP. “Could Marine Le Pen Beat the Odds and Win the French Election?” CBS News. CBS Interactive, 04 May 2017. Web. 06 May 2017.
“Rise and Fall of The French Republics Timeline.” Timetoast. Timetoast, n.d. Web. 06 May 2017.
Turchin, Peter. Ages of Discord. S.l.: Beresta, 2016. Print.